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4+7预中标价格公布,这些人受到的影响最大……

医药魔方 医药魔方 来源:医药魔方
2018-12-06
带量采购
原文

4+7带量采购的杀伤力有多大,看看预中选阶段的企业报价就知道了,而且报出低价得以拟中选的企业,今天下午还要继续跟医保局议价,才能确定最终中标价格。


预中标阶段企业报价及降幅


前两年,几个原研和独家品种被国家按到地板上猛烈摩擦的时候,站在一边看热闹的仿制药企业肯定没想到这么快就会轮到自己,而且医保局的手劲好像还更大。


看看正大天晴、阿斯利康、信立泰的报价吧,只能说中标企业的求生欲太强,永远不要低估竞争对手一颗拿下市场的心。


今天下午的议价结果择日公布,结局肯定不会更好。据传:


财联社12月6日讯,记者获悉,国家带量采购投标谈判日还在进行,预中标阿奇霉素的企业,在下午与政府的谈判中,因为政府进一步压价而没有接受,造成阿奇霉素流标。另外,截至目前,全部招标的30余种药物,尚有一半还未确定最后价格。


很多人的信仰似乎在今天被摧毁了……不管怎样,局面就是这样了,所以发散着讨论一个业余话题。4+7带量采购预中标价格公布后,哪类人受到的影响最大:


1)二级市场“韭菜”


下午开盘,跟集采有关的股票带头闪崩,跟集采无关的股票跟着崩……信心能不能恢复很难讲,反正都说仿制药企业的成长逻辑变了,说要远离医药股了……



2)医生


企业低价中标以后,医院保证采购量了,仿制药也就用不着向医生营销了,销售费用降下来,科室会可能也就不需要开了。


3)医药代表


企业降价,砍掉的利润只能从销售费用上找补。仿制药就不需要营销进院的队伍了,医药代表可能要面临裁员了(见:凛冬将至?国家集中带量采购震动百亿医药市场,数万医药代表或失业…)


12月3日,杰出雇主调研机构(Top Employers Institute)年度认证晚宴隆重举行,不少大制药企业刚刚上榜,如果紧跟着大规模裁人可就有些尴尬了。


4)代理商


两票制本身就在压缩一些代理商的生存空间,现在中标药品有了量的保证,可以直接进医院,厂家直接给医院供货,大包商的生存空间没那么大了。


5)药学CRO


一致性评价的进度本身就很缓慢(独家 · 289品种一致性评价生死局),而通过一致性评价有资格参与4+7采购的企业今天遭遇闷头杀,势必会动摇其他正在做一致性评价的企业的信心。CRO能承接的项目会减少。临床CRO还有创新药的业务,药学CRO的前景一片黯淡。


从产业整合角度看,仿制药企业数量如果剧烈萎缩到300家,仿制药项目也不会像以前那么多了,药学CRO继续洗牌、分化,该关门的关门。



6)打算转行卖药的人


机器翻译

4 + 7 How much is the killing power of the procurement with volume? Look at the quotation of the company in the pre-selection stage and know that the company that has reported the low price to be selected will continue to negotiate with the Medicare Bureau this afternoon to determine the final bid price.

Enterprise Quotation and Decline in Pre-winning Stage

In the first two years, when several original research and exclusive varieties were violently rubbed by the country on the floor, the generic pharmaceutical companies standing on the side of watching the excitement definitely did not expect that they would turn to themselves so quickly, and the strength of the Medicare Bureau seemed to be even greater.

Look at the quotations of Chia Tai Tian Qing, AstraZeneca, and Xin Litai. It can only be said that the survival desire of the winning bidder is too strong, and never underestimate the heart of a competitor to win the market.

The results of this afternoon's bargaining will be announced on a certain day, and the outcome will certainly not be better.According to legend:

Finance Union, December 6, the reporter was informed that the national procurement bid negotiation day is still in progress, pre-winning azithromycin enterprises, in the afternoon negotiations with the government, because the government further reduced prices and did not accept, resulting in azithromycin flow standards.In addition, as of now, half of the more than 30 drugs that have all been tenders have not yet determined the final price.

Many people's beliefs seem to be destroyed today …Anyway, that's the way it is, so there's an amateur topic to discuss.4 + 7 After the pre-bid price for procurement with quantity is announced, which type of person is most affected:

1) Secondary market "leek"

Opening in the afternoon, stocks related to collective mining lead the collapse, stocks unrelated to collective mining follow the collapse...It is difficult to say whether confidence can be restored. Anyway, it is said that the growth logic of generic pharmaceutical companies has changed, saying that it is necessary to stay away from pharmaceutical stocks...

2) Doctor

After the company wins the bid at a low price, the hospital guarantees the purchase volume, and generic drugs do not need to be marketed to the doctor. The sales expenses are lowered and the department may not need to be opened.

3) Medical representative

Enterprise price cuts, cut profits can only find compensation from sales costs.Generic drugs do not need to be marketed into the hospital, and medical representatives may have to face layoffs (see: Winter is coming?The country's centralized procurement shocks the billion-dollar pharmaceutical market, tens of thousands of pharmaceutical representatives or unemployment...)

On December 3rd, the Top Employers Institute's annual certification dinner was held. Many big pharmaceutical companies have just been on the list, and if they are followed by large-scale cuts, they will be embarrassed.

4) Agents

The two-vote system itself is compressing the living space of some agents. Now that the successful bidder has guaranteed the quantity, he can go directly to the hospital and the manufacturer supplies it directly to the hospital. The living space of the big contractor is not so large.

5) The progress of the pharmacy CRO

conformity assessment itself is very slow (Exclusive · 289 Variety Conformity Assessment Birth and Death Bureau), and companies that are eligible to participate in 4 + 7 procurement through conformity assessment will inevitably shake the confidence of other companies that are doing conformity assessment today.The number of projects CRO can undertake will be reduced.Clinical CRO also has the business of innovative drugs, and the prospects of pharmaceutical CRO are bleak.

From the perspective of industrial integration, if the number of generic pharmaceutical companies shrinks dramatically to 300, generic pharmaceutical projects will not be as much as before, and pharmaceutical CROs will continue to reshuffle and divide, closing the door.

6) People who intend to switch to drug selling

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